Forecasting Incidence of Road Accidents during the 2019 New Year Holiday Season


  • Sayam Aroonsrimorakot Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies, Mahidol University
  • Somchai Bovornkitti The Academy of Science, The Royal Society of Thailand, Bangkok


Seven days, New Year Festival, Accident


Introduction: Accidents are a major problem in Thailand for a long time. Accidents, in addition to losing property, can also affect the body. From the results of data analysis obtained from injuries and deaths of the Health Organization and the National Statistical Office, it was found that the trend of the impact of injuries and deaths from accidents has increased rapidly.
Method: The study used secondary data from internet sources and relevant organization of accidents in Thailand, particularly during the 7 dangerous days of New Year's festival (2013 - 2018) with aims to create forecasting incident models as data report during New Year Festival of 2019. The simple seasonal model is used to predict the number of accidents during the 7 dangerous
days of New Year Festival, 2019
Result: The result shows the total number of road accidents during the 7 days’ holidays of New Year Festival in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 as 3,176, 3,174, 2,996, 3,379, 3,919 and 3,841
respectively. The presented data shows that the number of road accidents during New Year Festival is increasing from 2015 to 2017.
Conclusion: The predicted value of numbers of overview accident in 2019 is 3,871. The accidents occurred mostly on the 3rd day of New Year Season.


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