Dynamic Transmission of African Horse Sickness in Horse Populations during the First Epidemic in Thailand
Keywords:African horse sickness, dynamic transmission, herd immunity, mathematical model
Thailand faced the first outbreak of African horse sickness (AHS) in its history in 2020. The virus firstly attacked Nakhon Ratchasima province, where a large number of naïve horses lived. In this outbreak, over four hundred horses were infected and died within three months. This study applied DengueME application to simulate how the virus spread in the horse populations with the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) modeling framework in horses and susceptible-infectious (SI) in vectors. The basic reproduction number (R0), herd immunity threshold, and vaccine coverage requirement were subsequently calculated. We estimated R0 at 3.3. With the herd immunity threshold of 69.7%, we suggested vaccinating 86.1% of horse populations to prevent future outbreaks. Our model is applicable as a baseline to test interventions such as vector control and to monitor the dynamic transmission of AHS in horse populations.
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