The amount of Particulate matter that have a diameter of less than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) forecasted in Nakhon Ratchasima Province.

Abstract

This research aimed to study the situation of 5 groups of surveillance diseases relating to particulate matter size up to 2.5 microns (PM2.5) in Nakhon Ratchasima Province using a descriptive epidemiological method using the data from 1 January  to 30 June 2019, compared with the previous 5-year data from the epidemiological surveillance system database (R506) and Health Data Center (HDC) of the Nakhon Ratchasima Provincial Public Health Office; to study the PM2.5 situation and find a suitable hourly PM2.5 forecasting model from 2 forecasting techniques: smoothing forecasting technique and the Box-Jenkins predictive modeling technique using the hourly PM2.5 data measured at the Phon Saen Gate Pumping Station provided by Air Quality and Noise Management Division, Pollution Control Department, starting measurement from 28 June 2019 to 30 June 2020; and to provide recommendations for medical and public health actions to mitigate the health effects of PM2.5 in Nakhon Ratchasima Municipality. The results of the study showed that the months that PM2.5 affects human's health in Nakhon Ratchasima municipality was from December 2019 to March 2020, which had a good fit for health indicator of surveillance diseases having health impacts from PM2.5 is chronic obstructive bronchitis. The Box-Jenkins forecasting technique provides more accurate predictions of the short-term future than the smoothing forecasting technique. The time period giving high accuracy prediction is within 36 hours with the Ljung-Box Q value of 0.056, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 3 and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 30.91.