Trend and seasonality analysis of milk production from dairy cooperatives in Chiang Mai https://doi.org/10.12982/VIS.2021.009

Article Sidebar

pdf
Published: Nov 27, 2020
Keywords:
Milk production, Time series model, Trend, Seasonality, Dairy cooperative, Chiang Mai

Main Article Content

Veerasak Punyapornwithaya
Department of Food Animal Clinics, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50100 Thailand
Kunnanut Klaharn
Bureau of Livestock Standards and Certification, Department of Livestock Development (DLD), Bangkok 10400 Thailand
Chalutwan Sansamur
Akkhraratchakumari Veterinary College, Walailak University, Nakhon Si Thammarat 80160 Thailand
Warangkana Kitpipit
Akkhraratchakumari Veterinary College, Walailak University, Nakhon Si Thammarat 80160 Thailand

Abstract

Analysis of trend and seasonality for production data is essential for establishing planning and strategy for future marketing. The aims of this study were 1) to determine the trend and seasonality of milk production and 2) to compare the quantity of milk among dairy cooperatives in Chiang Mai. Monthly milk production data from 7 dairy cooperatives and a company collected during 2016-2020 were analyzed for trend and seasonality using time series methods. Overall milk productions in 2019 was compared among dairy cooperative using a general linear mixed model. Results showed that most of the dairy cooperatives showed an increasing trend for milk production. The milk productions from all dairy cooperatives had a similar seasonality pattern as the highest milk production was found in the period of March to May. Among dairy cooperative, Chaiprakarn was the top rank in milk production (2581.73±50.46 tons/month). This study provided essential information for dairy cooperative boards, government sectors, private sectors, and other stakeholders to plan and manage the amount of milk in the future.

Article Details

How to Cite
Punyapornwithaya, V., Klaharn, K., Sansamur, C., & Kitpipit, W. (2020). Trend and seasonality analysis of milk production from dairy cooperatives in Chiang Mai : https://doi.org/10.12982/VIS.2021.009. Veterinary Integrative Sciences, 19(1), 101–110. Retrieved from https://he02.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/vis/article/view/246619
Issue
Vol. 19 No. 1 (2021): January-April
Section
Research Articles
Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Publishing an article with open access in Veterinary Integrative Sciences leaves the copyright with the author. The article is published under the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC-BY 4.0), which allows users to read, copy, distribute and make derivative works from the material, as long as the author of the original work is cited.

References

Hyndman, RJ., Khandakar, Y., 2008. Automatic time series forecasting: the forecast package for R. Journal of Statistical Software. 26(3), 1-22. Retrieved 15 September 2020, from https://www.jstatsoft.org/article/view/v027i03
Jebb, A.T., Tay, L., Wang, W., Huang, Q., 2015. Time series analysis for psychological research: examining and forecasting change. Front Psychol. 6, 727. Doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00727
Krispin, R. 2020. Functions for Time Series Analysis and Forecasting. Retrieved 15 September 2020, from https:// cloud.r-project.org/ package=TSstudio
Kongsook, P., Nantawichain, K., 2020. The different of milk composition and somatic cell count during season on dairy farms in Chiang Mai, Thailand. Retrieved 15 September 2020, from http://region5.dld.go.th/webnew/images/stories/2563/paper/6320116561.pdf
Naumova, E. N., 2006. Mystery of seasonality: getting the rhythm of nature. Journal of
Public Health Policy. 27(1), 2–12.
Office of Regional Livestock 5., 2020. Reports on dairy population and milk production from 2016 to present. Retrieved 17 September 2020, from http://region5.dld.go.th/webnew/index.php/th/organization-menu/strategic-menu-2/780-2559
Ollech, D., 2019. Seasonality Tests. R package version 0.14.2. Retrieved 19 September 2020, from https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=seastests
Phinidsorn, K., Punyapornwithaya, V., Rojanasthien S., 2015. Factors of milk cost of small and medium dairy farms in Chiang Mai and Lumphun provinces. Proceedings of 53rd Kasetsart University Annual Conference, 3-6 February 2015, Kasetsart University, Thailand. Plants, Animals, Veterinary Medicine, Fisheries, Agricultural Extension and Home Economics. 977-984.
Pinheiro, J., Bates, D., DebRoy, S., Sarkar, D., R Core Team., 2020. Linear and Nonlinear Mixed Effects Models. R package version 3.1-148. Retrieved 15 September 2020, from https://CRAN.Rproject.org/package=nlme
R Core Team., 2020. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. Retrieved 15 September 2020, from https://www.R-project.org/
Ryan, J.A., Ulrich, J.M., Bennett, R Joy, C. 2020. eXtensible Time Series Retrieved 19 September 2020, from https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=xts
Rojanasthien, S., Chupia, V., Yaungkad, J., Arpairoj, C., 2006. Results of changes in milk quality management of small-scale farmers member of dairy cooperatives in Chiang Mai province. Proceedings of 44th Kasetsart University Annual Conference, 30 February 2006. Animal, Veterinary Medicine March. 461-468.
Sansamur, C., Arjkumpa, O., Charoenpanyanet, A., Punyapornwithaya, V., 2020. Determination of Risk Factors Associated with Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Dairy Farms in Chiang Mai Province, Northern Thailand. Animals. 10, 512.
Seetakoses, P., Sruamsiri, S., Sauphoo, K., Niumsup, P., Siri, A., 1991. The investigation on dairy cattle production in Chiang Mai. Proceedings of the 29th Kasetsart University Annual Conference, Bangkok, Thailand, 4-7 February 1991. Animals, Veterinary Medicine, Fisheries. 177-185.
Ward, MP., Iglesias, RM., Brookes, V., 2020. Autoregressive models applied to time series data in veterinary science. Frontiers in Veterinary Science. doi:10.3389/fvets.2020.00604