Forecasting Trends of Health Product Complaints in the Northeastern Region of Thailand

Abstract

Abstract

                The objectives of this research are 1) to examine forecasting theory and quantification analysis of health product complaints in the Northeast Thailand that have an impact on people’s health and safety 2) To compare the actual number of health product complaints in the Northeastern region with the forecasting trend of health product complaints in the future and 3) to use forecasting data on the tendency of complaints to support in operational planning or assist in formulating guidelines for handling complaints related to health products in the future. Survey, experimental, and qualitative research methods were used in the research. Purposive selection was used to choose the 20 samples who are executives, directors, supervisors, and deputy heads of the Consumer Protection Unit from the Northeast's Provincial Public Health Offices. Basic statistics as percentage, mean, and standard deviation were used to analyze the data. Trends in Northeast health product complaints were forecasted by using the Simple Exponential Smoothing Method. The mean absolute percentage error, or MAPE, was used to measure the forecast results. Then the results were summarized and presented in the form of an essay. The research found that 1) Simple Exponential Smoothing Method Forecasting is the method that is most consistent with the number of health product complaints in the Northeast. This is because the time-series data of complaints that are unaffected by seasonality. The test's findings indicate a propensity for complaints about health products. It was found that litigation involving health products had the highest predictive value (MAPE = 23.59). 2) Statistics on the occurrence of health product complaints in the Northeastern region over the previous six fiscal years (2017-2022) found that 92.88% of the total number of complaints were resolved. This illustrates the excellent quality of complaint management which in line with the opinions on the occurrence of health product complaints in the Northeast of the sample group who responsible for such operations, the opinions on the health product complaint handling performance were at a high level (X ̅= 4.15). The most effective management of complaints for health products are the service of information and knowledge of health products, followed by supervision and control of health products and finally service complaints related to health products. And 3) the trend of complaints in the next 5 years (2023 – 2027) will be a tendency to increase the number of product complaints. The management of complaints is a crucial control mechanism that will assist in lowering the number of complaints in other areas. Increasing measures and mechanisms for handling complaints that arise appropriately and promptly will reduce the tendency of the number of complaints in other areas as well. Therefore, planning, setting guidelines for good health product operations in the future in accordance with the policy of the country and the standard framework set by the Ministry of Public Health or related agencies, it will reduce the impact on health and increase the safety of people.

Key words : Simple Exponential Smoothing Method