Forecasting the number of inpatients with dementia and Alzheimer's disease in Thailand.
Keywords:
Forecasting, Inpatient, Dementia, Alzheimer’s diseaseAbstract
Study of dementia in the elderly aged 60 years and over, from the report of the Thai Public Health Survey by Physical Examination, No. 5, 2014, which included a survey to screen for dementia in the elderly aged 60 years and over, found the prevalence of dementia to be 8.1 percent. The Ministry of Public Health summarized sickness reports from 2013 to 2022, and in 2022, there were 11,865 people with dementia and 8,227 with Alzheimer's disease. The Department of Medical Services announced that the elderly people with dementia statistics in 2022 were 770,000 people, or a prevalence of 6.17 percent, and 2.61 percent of them were inpatients. The objective of this research is to forecast the number of patients with dementia and Alzheimer's disease in 2023 based on 10-year patient statistics from 2013–2022, using Grey System Theory time series forecasting with the GM(1,1) model and the GM(1,1) expanded with periodic correction model (GM(1,1)EPC), and consider the accuracy based on the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results showed the predicted value of the number of inpatients according to the GM(1,1)EPC model and the GM(1,1) model: in 2023, there will be inpatients with dementia and Alzheimer's disease, ranging from 12,408 to 13,200 and 8,898 to 9,352, respectively. When the average of the two diseases is combined, there will be a total of 21,929 inpatients with dementia symptoms, and if inpatients come from dementia patients by 2.61 percent, then in the year 2023, there will be 840,192 people with dementia symptoms, accounting for a prevalence of only 6.49 percent in the elderly aged 60 years and over.
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