Efficacy of Using the National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) to Predict Mortality of Covid-19 Patients in Isolation Ward, Nakornping Hospital

Abstract

The objective of this retrospective study was to examine the efficacy of using the National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) to predict mortality in COVID-19 patients and to compare the effectiveness of NEWS2 and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA Score) in predict mortality in Covid-19 patients in the isolation ward, Nakornping Hospital. Participants were 222 male and female patients, aged 15 years and over who had been diagnosed with COVID-19 (code U071 based on ICD-10) and admitted in the isolation ward between April and June 2022. Data were collected from medical records. The data were analyzed using multiple logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves was used to predict mortality of Covid-19 patients.

The results showed that evaluating NEWS2 before admitting to the hospital can predict mortality of COVID-19 patients, compared to evaluating NEWS2 in 24 hours after admission and evaluating NEWS2 while admitted, with the area under the ROC curve being 87.15, 83.83, and 81.83, respectively. A NEWS2 score of greater than or equal to 8 can predict mortality of a COVID-19 patient in the hospital with statistical significance (p-value = 0.003). When comparing the effeteness of NEWS2 and SOFA Score in predicting mortality in COVID-19 patients, SOFA score was better predictive of mortality in COVID-19 patients with the area under the ROC curve of 98.69. Whereas the area under the ROC curve of NEWS2 before admission was 86.24. The SOFA score of greater than or equal to 5 was statistically significant predictor the mortality of COVID-19 patients (p-value < 0.001).