การพยากรณ์จำนวนป่วยโรคหอบหืดและโรคหลอดลมอักเสบด้วยวิธีบ๊อกซ์และเจนกินส์

Jarurnsook  Ausavapipit; Vadhana Jayathavaj

Authors

Jarurnsook Ausavapipit Faculty of Nursing, Pathumthani University
Vadhana Jayathavaj Faculty of Allied Health Sciences, Pathumthani University

Keywords:

Forecasting, The number of cases, Asthma, Bronchitis, The Box and Jenkins method, Time series

Abstract

The number of cases of asthma and bronchitis in Thailand continued to increase during 2022 and 2023. The study objective aimed to forecast the monthly number of asthma and bronchitis cases in 2024. The data were collected from the report by Ministry of Public Health. The time series analysis was the seasonal Box and Jenkins method. When using data on monthly asthma and bronchitis cases from 2020 to 2023 as in-sample/training dataset in model development processed with the R program, the auto.arima() function yielded the model ARIMA(2,0,0)(1,1,0)[12] with drift, and ARIMA(0,1,0)(1,0,0) [12], respectively, and had the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 7.30, and 30.28 respectively, which can be used for highly accurate predictions, and enough to be used to make predictions, respectively. However, in 2024, the number of asthma cases increase from 2023 by 8.17 percent, while bronchitis cases decrease by 5.09 percent.

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