สถานกาณ์และการคาดคะเคแนวโน้มการเกิดโรคที่ต้องเฝ้าระวังทางระบาดวิทยาจำนวน 25 โรค ของจัวหวัดสุพรรณบุรีในปี พ.ศ. 2541

บทคัดย่อ

The purposes of this research study were to study the situation and distribution of the 25 diseases under surveillance of Suphanburi Province during the past 1987 - 1997 and to forecast the number of cases and the morbidity rate of those diseases in 1998. Data were analysed by SAS and LOTUS Programme. The statistics used were proportion, rate, ratio and quantitative forecasting method.

The study indicated that

1. Morbidity rate trend to increase in these diseases; Diarrhea, Food Poisoning, Chickenpox, Pneumonia and Mumps.

1. Number of cases, by quantitative forecasting method, will be lower than or nearly equal to the median line in these diseases ; Dysentery, Hepatitis, influenza, Rubella, Malaria, Tuberculosis, Fever of Unknown Origin, Venereal Disease, Pesticide Poisoning and Suicide.

1. Number of cases, by quantitative forecasting method, will be higher than the median line in these diseases ; Severe Diarrhea, Diarrhea, Food Poisoning, Enteric Fever, Conjunctivitis, Measles, Chickenpox, DHF, Pneumonia and Mumps.

From this study, if there will be no much change in the circumstance in 1998, we should give the importance to the prevention and control in the following diseases in Suphanburi Province.

1. Food-Water Borne Disease ; Diarrhea, Food Poisoning and Enteric Fever.
2. Vector Disease ; DHF.
3. Vaccine- Preventive Disease : Mumps and Measles.
4. Other Communicable Disease ; Pneumonia, conjunctivitis and Chickenpox.