SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS AFFECT DENGUE HEMORRHAGIC FEVER EPIDEMICS IN UPPER NORTHERN THAILAND
Keywords:
Social and environmental factors, Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever Epidemic, Container index, Humid, Rainfall, BednetAbstract
This applied research aimed to investigate the determinants affecting dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) and to create a predictive model of the disease epidemic with the boundary of 8 provinces in northern Thailand. Areas of the investigation were classified as a high-risk consistency of a secondary DHF infection cases or an outbreak of DHF cases, or a second generation of disease within 28 consecutive days. The method of data collection was to collect the secondary data concerning geographical settings, mosquito vectors, DHF epidemiological reports, rainfall, temperature, humidity, Aedes larvae density in a sub-district level consecutively between 2006 – 2010. Including the data relating to social epidemiology, the primary data had been collected in the field survey including population and migration, knowledge, perception, and behaviors of the disease prevention, age, occupation, history of DHF infection, and community participation. The method of field survey was to construct a questionnaire to interview with 1,090 villagers in 16 villages of 8 provinces. The data analyses performed percentages, mean, S.D., x2test, and multiple logistic regression analysis. The results showed that the determinants of the DHF epidemics comprised an increasing container index (CI) with every one unit increased DHF cases as high as 1.76 times. Children who did not sleep under bednet during the day time increased DHF epidemics 3.25 times. The average humidity decreased for every one unit increased DHF epidemics 8.96 times, and an excess rainfall decreased one unit would increase DHF epidemics 1.05 times (R2 = 0.807) as the equation model shown below. Y/ = -145.525+0.566CI+1.180Bn-0.624Ws+2.193Humid-0.052Rainfall
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