Survival Rate of Functionally Dependent Older Populations in Pho Sai District, Ubon Ratchathani Province 2019-2025
Keywords:
dependent older adults, survival rate, long term careAbstract
This study employed a retrospective cohort design to investigate the survival rate among dependent older adults in Pho Sai District, Ubon Ratchathani Province, Thailand. Data were obtained from older adults registered in the Long-Term Care (LTC) system between January 1, 2019 and December 31, 2023, with follow-up of survival status until December 31, 2025. Descriptive statistics, including frequency, percentage, mean, and standard deviation, were used to summarize participant characteristics. Survival analysis was conducted using the Kaplan–Meier method.
The study included 1,137 dependent older adults, contributing a total follow-up time of 5,671.36 person-years, during which 296 deaths were recorded. The mortality rate was 5.22 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 4.66–5.85). The estimated survival probabilities at 1, 3, and 5 years were 97.36% (95% CI: 96.25–98.15), 88.54% (95% CI: 86.52–90.27), and 79.73% (95% CI: 77.07–82.11), respectively.
These findings indicate a progressive decline in survival probability over time among dependent older adults. The observed mortality pattern is consistent with the vulnerability and complex health conditions commonly found in this population. The findings provide important empirical evidence to support the planning, strengthening, and optimization of long-term care systems and healthcare service delivery for older populations at the local level.
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